IMPACT OF LOCAL GOVERNMENT SPENDING ON POVERTY REDUCTION
Abstract
This study investigates the impact of local budget expenditures on the growth of Gross Regional Product (GRP) using an econometric modeling approach. By analyzing historical data and constructing both trend models and nonlinear empirical models, the research provides a comprehensive assessment of the relationship between public spending and regional economic performance. Key findings highlight that changes in local budget expenditures significantly influence GRP dynamics, with fourth-degree regression models offering the most accurate forecasts. The model predicts a 1.2275-fold increase in GRP in 2024 and a 2.7871-fold increase by 2028, compared to 2023 levels, based on current pricing benchmarks. These results offer valuable insights for policymakers to optimize budget allocations for sustainable regional development.
Keywords
Gross Regional Product, local budget expenditures, econometric model, trend analysis, regional development forecasting.
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