MACROECONOMIC FACTORS AFFECTING BUSINESS VALUE: IN THE CONTEXT OF UZBEKISTAN AND THE GLOBAL MARKET.

Abstract

This article examines the impact of key macroeconomic factors on business valuation in Uzbekistan amid structural reforms and increasing integration into the global economy. The study analyzes the transmission channels through which GDP dynamics, inflation, and exchange rate volatility affect asset valuation and discounting parameters, as well as the role of external shocks transmitted via trade, investment, and financial markets. A comparative analysis of Uzbekistan’s macroeconomic conditions with those of selected countries demonstrates that the instability of correlations between macroeconomic indicators and market capitalization necessitates the adaptation of conventional valuation models. The paper proposes a quantitative valuation framework that integrates domestic macroeconomic variables with global economic cycles, accounting for lagged effects, sectoral sensitivity, and scenario-based projections of inflation and interest rates. The practical relevance of the findings lies in the development of a methodological toolkit aimed at improving valuation accuracy and reducing investment risks under conditions of macroeconomic uncertainty.